金融业“营改增”福利效应的动态一般均衡分析

Impact of transformation from business tax to VAT in financial industry:A dynamic CGE modeling approach

金融业"营改增"是我国当前税制改革中的重要一环.本文在测算其增值税税负临界点为6.94%的基础上,应用中国动态CGE模型,模拟分析在5%和6%两种增值税税率情景下的福利经济效应,结果显示:"减税"效应对金融业的发展带来了正面影响,加快了资本积累速度,推动了长期的经济增长以及居民福利水平;税收方面,虽然降低我国间接税总收入,但增加了关税、消费税、直接税等税收收入,显现一定的"拉弗效应";结构层面,促进了要素资源向第三产业集中,积极推动了我国产业结构的调整.

The coming transformation from business tax to VAT of financial industry is an important part of the current tax system reform in our country.The paper finds that the critical point of tax burden between business tax and VAT is about 6.94%.We apply China dynamic CGE model(Chinagem model)to evaluate the effect of the transformation from business tax to VAT in 5%and 6%of VAT rate on macroeconomics and industrial development.The result shows that the reform has a positive effect on the development of financial sector,and it accelerates the pace of capital accumulation,and promotes long-term economic growth and residents' welfare.The number of customs duties,excise taxes and direct taxes increases,while the total indirect tax revenue decreases which reflects the obvious 'Laffer effect'.As for industries,the reform will promote the adjustment of industrial structure by accelerating resources of labor and capital flowing into the the tertiary industry.