灾害应对策略的评估模型及分类框架研究

Research of evaluation model and classification framework on disaster response strategy

根据影响救灾行动绩效的两个关键因素:灾害响应时间和物流专业化水平,提出了一种灾害应对策略的评估模型及分类框架.该策略评估模型以最小化社会损失为目标,通过建立政企合作下最优订货量模型和社会损失效率评价模型,从数量和效率两个维度分析灾害救援行动的绩效.根据此框架,可以将常见的灾害应对策略划分为4类:即时型自主物流策略、预防型自主物流策略、即时型外包物流策略和预防型外包物流策略.在此框架下,通过横向和纵向的交叉比较及实际算例分析得到如下结论:对于帐篷、棉被等非易腐物资,采用预防型自主物流策略可以在数量和效率两方面提高救灾行动绩效,这与我国目前大力发展救灾物资储备体系和基础运输网络以提高救灾行动绩效的政策相吻合;对于药品、食物、血浆等易腐性救灾物资,采用预防型外包物流策略则更为有效,这一结论从理论的角度证明了政企合作式救灾应急模式的可行性和必要性.该研究对未来我国健全救灾物资储备制度、完善救灾应对策略体系、建立政府与企业合作救灾新模式提供了理论依据.

There are two key factors affecting the performance of disaster relief operations:response time to a disaster and logistics expertise.By taking these factors into consideration,an evaluation model and a classification framework for disaster response strategy were proposed.The objective of this evaluation model is to minimize the social loss of a disaster.To achieve this goal,we establish an optimal order quantity model under the government-enterprise cooperation environment and an efficiency evaluation model based on the social loss.These two models can evaluate the performance of a disaster relief operation from the aspect of quantity and efficiency.According to this framework,the common disaster response strategy can be divided into four categories:instant response & self-logistics strategy,preventive & self-logistics strategy,instant response & outsourcing logistics strategy and preventive & outsourcing logistics strategy.By crosscomparison and the example analysis,two conclusions can be made:for imperishable relief supplies,such as tents and quilts,the preventive & self-logistics strategy can improve the performance of relief operations both in quantity and efficiency.This result is consistent with the reality in China that the reserve systems of relief supplies and the constructions of transportation networks have been vigorously developed to improve the performance of relief operations.While for perishable relief supplies,such as pharmaceutical,food and plasma,the preventive & outsourcing logistics strategy can make a relief operation more effective,and it theoretically proves the feasibility and necessity of building a government-enterprise collaboration system for disaster responding.This study provides a theoretical basis for polishing current relief supplies reserve system in China,improving the disaster response strategy system and establishing a new governmententerprise collaboration pattern for disaster responding.