高能耗企业绿色转型技术的实物期权选择路线

Selecting route of green transformation technologies of energy intensive enterprise with real options

本文试图解决企业根据经济波动及自身的情况如何进行绿色转型技术最优战略选择的问题.本文利用实物期权法,对经济的发展状况及技术进行了情景分析,得到了企业绿色转型技术的最优投资规律和选择路线.结果表明碳交易价格的初始作用是促进高能耗企业进行绿色转型投资;企业的资金实力是影响企业绿色转型成功和路线选择的一个重要因素,但最终影响高能耗企业绿色转型成功和路线选择的关键因素是经济的繁荣程度,投资贴现率的高低,以及绿色转型技术的发展水平.理论模型启示政府应控制好经济环境的稳定和繁荣,制定动态的最优碳交易机制,积极重点地鼓励培育投资贴现率高的绿色转型技术.

This paper attempts to consider and solve the problem for companies to choose the optimal strategic route of green transformation technology investment based on economic fluctuation and their own situation.We apply a real option to conduct scenario analysis on the forecast economic development status and technology and get the optimal investment rules and the optimal choice route of the green transformation technology.The main results are:1)the initial role of carbon trading price is to promote the green transformation of high-energy enterprises;2)enterprise’s financial strength is an another important factor that influences green transition success and route selection for enterprise;3)the key factors which influence green transition success and route selection for enterprise axe the degree of economic prosperity,the height of the investment of the discount rate,and the development level of the green transformation technology.Furthermore,our theoretical model implicates that government should control the stability and prosperity of the economic environment and provide a good carbon trading mechanism and encourage to cultivate high green transformation technology with the high discount rate investment.