基于前景值评价法的上海住房保障政策效应研究

Research on Shanghai housing security policy effect based on the evaluation method of prospect theory

文章比较选取了前景值评价法作为上海住房保障政策效应的综合评价方法,通过纠正总相关系数和因子分析的方法筛选了相应的评价指标,为科学地评价上海住房保障政策效应奠定了理论基础.在获取1998-2014年的各项指标数据进行模型测算以后,梳理了上海住房保障政策效应综合前景值的变化规律,明确了各类保障性住房政策发挥的作用和效力.而与倒U型社会保障水平发展历程相对比,上海构建多层次住房保障体系的探索则相对滞后.

This paper selected the evaluation method of prospect theory as comprehensive evaluation method of evaluating Shanghai housing security policy effect, and then screened the corresponding evaluation index by means of correcting total correlation coefficient and factor analysis, thus laying the theoretical foundation for the scientific evaluation of Shanghai housing security policy effect. After model calculation had been done using the index data from 1998 to 2014, the change law of the comprehensive value estimating housing security policy effect was cleared, and the effects and function of various security housing policy was clarified. However, when compared with the inverted U-shaped development process of social security level, the exploration of multi-level housing security system is found to be relatively fallen behind for Shanghai.