事前-事中两阶段突发事件应急决策方法

Beforehand-ongoing two-stage decision making method for emergency response

针对具有事前不确定情景预测信息的突发事件应急响应决策问题,考虑到事前防灾、减灾措施会对事中应对措施的实施效果造成影响的问题特点,提出了一种事前-事中两阶段突发事件应急决策方法.该方法中,首先通过计算各事中应对措施的效用值确定针对不同防灾、减灾措施和事中灾害情景的最优事中应对措施;然后,基于后悔理论的思想,构建两两防灾、减灾措施比较的过度应对预期后悔矩阵和应对不足预期后悔矩阵,进而构建综合预期后悔矩阵;在此基础上,分别计算各防灾、减灾措施的全局预期欣喜值、全局预期后悔值和排序值,并最终确定事前防灾、减灾措施和针对不同事中灾害情景的应对措施.最后,通过一个案例研究说明了本文所提出方法的计算过程.

With respect to the emergency response problem with uncertain scenario predictions, a beforehandongoing two-stage decision making method is proposed considering that the prevention actions adopted beforehand will affect the effects of response actions when the emergency is ongoing. In the method, by calculating the utility of each response action, the most desirable response action concerning each prevention action and each scenario is determined. Then, based on the idea of regret theory, the excessive response matrix and insufficient response matrix for pairwise comparisons of prevention actions are constructed,and then an overall anticipated regret matrix is built for selection the desirable prevention action. Further, the global delight value, global regret value and ranking value of each prevention action is calculated according to the overall anticipated regret matrix. Moreover, the ranking of the prevention actions can be determined, and the desirable prevention action and the response action corresponding to each emergency scenario can be obtained. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method.