公司跨界经营、信息披露与分析师预测

Transboundary,information disclosure and analyst forecast

通过手工搜集2003-2017年公司跨界经营数据,本文检验了公司跨界经营对分析师盈利预测的影响及其市场后果.实证结果表明,随着公司跨界程度的提高,分析师对其盈利预测的准确性下降,预测报告发布频率和预测修正幅度则会提高.同时,公司信息披露质量的提升有助于缓解公司跨界经营对分析师预测行为带来的不利影响.上述结果支持了信息处理成本假说和信息不确定性假说.最后,本文对跨界经营的市场后果做了检验,结果发现公司跨界经营程度越高,对分析师预测行为产生的消极作用越大,公司的市场折价程度越高.

Based on manually collected data on cross-border operation of the company from year 2003 to 2017,this paper examines the impact of the company’s transboundary level on the analyst’s earnings forecast behavior as well as the market consequence. The empirical results show that the higher the company’s transboundary level,the lower the accuracy of the analyst’s earnings forecast, and the higher the frequency of release as well as the forecast correction extent. At the same time, the improvement of the company’s information disclosure quality will help ease the negative impact of the company’s transboundary on analysts’ forecasting behavior. The above results support the information processing cost hypothesis and information uncertainty hypothesis. Finally, the paper finds that the higher the company’s transboundary level, the more negative the impact on the analyst’s forecasted behavior and the higher the company’s market discount.