全国空港客货运格局的时空演化及驱动机制研究

Evolution analysis and driving factors of spatial distribution pattern of airport traffic in China

本文选取全国176个空港2005-2014年客货吞吐量作为分析要素,首先将标准差椭圆和GIS空间分析方法相结合推演空港客货运系统空间格局的演化趋势;其次,基于空间随机试验和概率统计对客货流要素分布的聚集与差异特征进行检验;最后,通过不同要素空间格局相似性指标识别航空运输格局演变的驱动要素.结果发现:全国航空旅客和货邮运输的空间格局总体呈现向西移动趋势,货运比客运格局的移动速度更快;空港客货运量空间差异性逐渐减小、均衡性提升;客货运要素的地理分布具有显著聚集性,人均GDP、地区生产总值分别是客、货运格局演变生成机制的主要驱动要素,其研究结果对我国枢纽机场选址、空港布局决策等具有重要的指导价值.

Based on the 176 airports data of China from 2005 to 2014,an analytical method called the standard deviational ellipse method in GIS is firstly introduced for spatio-temporal evolution analysis of air passenger and cargo system.Then,the spatial agglomeration and disparity of passenger and cargo is identified by space random test and probabilistic distribution.Finally,we use spatial similarity method to identify the driving factors of air transport.Results show that the principle orientation of airport passenger is westward,which is similar with that of airport cargo volume,besides,the moving of cargo volume spatial pattern is faster than passenger volume spatial pattern.The spatial disparity of passenger and cargo volume is gradually decreased,presenting the development tendency of balance.The geographical distribution of air transport agglomeration is obvious,and GDP per capita is the main driving factor of air passenger,whereas regional GDP is the main driving factor of air cargo.Results of this study are useful for hub-airport siting and airport layout decision in China.