政府干预、时空效应与典型城市碳减排

Government Intervention,Time-space Effects and Carbon Emission Reduction of Typical Cities

借助显示性比较优势指数,将21个典型城市政府节能环保财政支出和科学技术财政支出对称化处理为政府干预代理变量,通过动态空间杜宾模型,考察政府干预及其他因素对典型城市碳减排的影响机制。实证结果显示:政府干预提高减排成效,其作用存在明显的时空效应。短期内,科学技术支出的减排效果优于节能环保支出,但长期作用效果存在边际效应递减规律,同时节能环保支出由于"辐射带动"作用短期内具有负向空间溢出效应,综合来看,政府节能环保支出具有"可持续性",而科学技术支出则可解决"燃眉之急";经济因素始终是碳排放增长的主要推动力,结构效应对碳排放增长的贡献高于规模效应,且结构效应短期内存在显著的正向空间溢出效应;人口结构效应的减排贡献优于规模效应;能源结构与技术创新抑制碳排放,其中技术创新具有"过程性"。

By means of the displayed comparative advantage index,the governments energy-conserving and environmental expenditures,scientific,technological and fiscal expenditures of 21 cities are symmetrically treated as governmental intervention variables in this paper.Meanwhile,dynamic spatial durbin model are constructed,to investigate the impact mechanism of government intervention and other factors on carbon emission reduction of typical cities.The empirical results show that:government intervention can improve the effectiveness of emission reduction,and it has obvious time and space effects.In the short term,the emission reduction effect relying on science and technology expenditure is better than energy-conserving and environmental expenditure,but the long-term effect has a law of diminishing marginal effect.At the same time,the energy-conserving and environmental expenditure has a negative spatial spillover effect in the short-term due to the radiationdriven effect.Overall,energy conservation and environmental protection expenditures are sustainable,while science and technology expenditures can solve emergency.Economic factors are always the main driving forces for carbon emission growth.The contribution of structural effects to carbon emission growth is higher than that of scale effect,and there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect in the short-term structure effect.Emission reduction contribution of population structure effect is superior to scale effect.Energy structure and technological innovation restrain carbon emission,among them;technological innovation is the process.