黑龙江省未来30、50年气候预测

Climate Forecast in the Future 30 to 50 Years in Hei Lojiang Province

通过CCCma、CCSR、CSIRO、Gfdl和Hadley气候模式对黑龙江省其中包括齐齐哈尔、佳木斯、哈尔滨、牡丹江等4区未来50年(2005～2050年),在GG、GS情景下数值模拟。结果表明(采用GS结果),未来2030、2050年气温均有较大增高。其中2030年年平均气温可增高1.94℃;春季提高2.06℃;夏季提高1.29℃;秋季提高1.79℃;冬季提高2.66℃,2050年又继续增加,年平均气温将提高2.42℃;春季提高2.13℃;夏季提高1.68℃;秋季提高2.56℃;冬季提高3.21℃。冬季是四季中增幅最大的季节,其次秋季、春季和夏季。如果按GG情景下,未来气温还要高出1℃。增温中心在西部齐齐哈尔,增温较小为牡丹江。从哈尔滨年蒸发量来看,2030年可增加11%,2050年可增加13%。

By applying the CCCma、CCSR、CSIRO、Cfdl and Hadley climate model, we simulated the temperature in future 50 yeares(from 2005 to 2050) of Hei Longjiang Province, it showed that the yearly mean temperature would increase quickly in the future 30 to 50 years under the CS model. By the year 2030 it will increase 1.94 centigrade; enhance 2.06、1.29 、1.79 and 2.56 centigrade in the Spring 、Summer、Fall and Winter respectively. And cotinue to increase by the year 2050, yearly mean temperature increases 2.42 centigrade; enhance 2.13 、1.68 、2.56 、3.21 centigrade in the Spring、Summer、Fall、Winter respectively. It also showed that Winter was the serious season in which the temperature increased obviously, then the Fall、Spring、Summer. And if we simulated by model CC, it would increase another 1 centigrade. The center of temperature increasing was located in the west of Qi Qihaer, yet it increased slightly in Mu Danjian.