用系统辨识方法预测气井见水时间

Using System Identification Method to Predict Water Breakthrough Time in Gas Well

本文用系统辨识方法和一维渗流微分方程的差分格式进行气井见水时间预测,试图特机理模型与统计方法结合起来解决油藏工程中某些难题。文中给出基本公式,讨论克服多解性的约束条件以及见水时间预测方法,并以中坝须二气藏中63井为计算实例。

The water breakthrough time in gas well is predicted by using the system identification method and the difference scheme of one-dimensional differential equation of filtering flow, attempting to solve some difficult problems in reservoir engineering by combining the mechanism model with the statistics. The paper gives the basic formulas and discusses on overcoming the restricting conditions in multi-solution method and the prediction method of water breakthrough time,well Zhong-63 in Xu-2 gas reservoir of Zhongba gas field is calculated as a practical example.