体制改革与市场均衡——关于四川改革政策对经济发展影响的分析

Structual Reform and Market Equilibrium

本文认为计划与市场的混合经济也可能取得与完全市场经济同样的资源总量配置方案。由于资源配置的效率还取决于价格由市场决定的程度,而中国体制改革将改变过去的价格决定机制,因此在改革中可能存在打破均衡的强烈扰动,对经济发展的稳定产生危害。为了探讨改革中的经济运行能够在何种程度上接受市场在总量中的扩张,本文对如何控制计划在工业生产中的份额以便校正市场可能产生的客观短缺、价格和市场开放的程度和幅度等问题,使用系统动力学模型,以四川省为样板,探讨了不同政策可能产生的不同后果。系统动力学模型对改革政策的几种中、长期模拟表明,市场开放和价格开放过快将导致经济发展的极大波动,并导致通货膨胀和相对价格水平的畸变。因此,改革的推进应该采取综合政策,在较快地推行市场开放的过程中,应当加强对商业的宏观控制,使商业市场价格的变化受到与一级批发市场同样的限制,同时增加工业中与最基本的公共需求相关的生产部门的计划份额,以增加经济运行的稳定性,还必须极度重视农产品相对价格较工业品相对价格上升较慢而导致农业落后和生产不足的问题。

This paper holds that a mixed planned and market economy may attain theallocation program of vesource sum,which is the same as overall market economy.For the efficiency of resource allocation is also decided by the degree of marketcontrolled price,and the Chinese struetual reform will change the former price-controlled mechanism,there may be a strong disturbance which would eause har-mfulness to the stability of economic development.In order to study what degreeeconomic performance in the reform can receive the market expansion in the sum,so this paper is aimed at the problem of how to control the shares of plan inindustrial production so as to correct the macro-shortage caused by market,and the degree and margin of market opening.using the model of systematicdynamics,this paper has studied the different policies produced by differentpolicies in Sichuan province.These simulations conducted suggests that excessivelyrapid of market and price opening would cause a great dislurbance of economicdevelopment,and also would cause inflation and the distortion of relatine pricelevel.So the development of reform should be adopted a synthetic policy.Inthe process of rapidly pursuing market opening,the macrocontrol of Commenceshould be strengthened,so changes of commerce market price can be also restrictedas the primary wholesale market.At the same time,the planned shares ofproduction sectors regarding those basic public needs should be increased inindustry,so as to increase the slability of economic performance.Finaly,atten-tion should be put to the problem of the fall in the rising of relative price ofagricultural products to the relative price of industrial products.