我国实际利率变动与货币政策最终目标的回归分析

An Empirical Research of Regression analysis between the Actual Interest Rate and Final Objects of the Monetary policy

利率作为中央银行货币政策的主要中介目标,对货币政策最终目标的实现起着至关重要的作用,但由于最终目标间的不协调性,利率对其作用效果是有区别的。通过对利率与我国GNP增长率、通货膨胀率、失业率和国际收支的回归分析,认为就我国实际情况而言,利率对于最终目标的实施效果有强弱之分,以利率为中介目标的货币政策的侧重点是经济增长和稳定物价,充分就业是通过与前两者的协调来间接实现的,而对于国际收支平衡的作用则很小。

Interest rate, being one of the major intermediary objects of the Central Bank's monetary policy, plays a significant role in realizing the final objects of the monetary policy. Due to the inconsistency among these final objects, however, its effects on them are different. Based on the empirical research of regression analysis of interest rate on the changing rate of GNP, the inflation rate, the unemployment rate and international payment, this paper has concluded that, under China's current situation, the effect of the interest rate on the final objects may be weak or strong. The monetary policy, with the interest rate as the intermediary object, has strong effect on the economic growth and price stability, while full employment is realized by consistently interactive effect of the former two. In contrast, the monetary policy has weak effect on the balance of international payment.