暴雨泥石流预报的研究

THE STUDY OF PREDICTION FOR DEBRIS FLOW CAUSED BY RAINSTORM

暴雨泥石流的发生是降雨作用于地面环境后,天地两系统中诸因素间的组合效应超过某一限值导致的结果。本文利用成昆铁路甘洛预报试验区1989～1990年64沟次观测资料,建立了预报暴雨泥石流发生的天地两系统的组合判别式,并用60年代以来我国西南、西北、东北等地区铁路沿线发生泥石流灾害的75沟次资料进行检验,结果较满意。所给出的指标具有一定代表性和准确性,可以作为泥石流发生的预报模式。

When the compositional effect of the two systems—rainfall and earth's surface environment—goes beyond a certain limit, the debris flow caused by rainfall occurs. In this paper, according to the observed data from 64 gully-events in the Ganluo Experimental Area along the Chengdu-Kunming Railway Line from 1989 to 1990, the compositional discriminant of the two systems for predicting whether the debris flow caused by rainstorm occurs has been established. The compositional discriminant is verified through the observed data from about 75 debris flow gully-events along the railways in the Southwest, Northwest and Northeast of China since 1960. The satisfactory results show that the compositional discriminant given in this paper is of typical representativeness and higher precision and can be considered as the prediction model for predicting debris flow occurence.