科学估算当前农村人口数量及城市化率

On the Estimate of the Present Rural Population

依据常住人口来统计城乡人口的办法不科学,因为进城务工经商的大多数农民的收入不足以维持他们在城市完成家庭和劳动力的再生产,他们只是城市的"过客",他们必须依托农村来完成劳动力的再生产。因此,当前农村人口总数不应该是"五普"公布的8.07亿,而应是8.8亿左右。相应地,农村人口占全国人口的比重不应是"五普"公布的63.91%,而应是70%左右。

It is not scientific to total urban and rural population on the basis of permanent residents. Being mere 'passersby', most of the farmers working in a city have to maintain the reproduction of families and labor force in the country rather than in the city because of their low income. Therefore, the present rural population should be 880 million instead of 807 million as was reported by the fifth census, and its proportion to the national population 80% instead of 73.91%.