城市定量火灾安全评估方法——以苏州古城区为例

On Quantitative Assessment of Urban Fire Prevention ---Taking Suzhou Ancient Downtown Area as a Fit Example

建立了城市火灾安全评价指标体系,其中一级指标4个,二级指标16个,三级指标43个。在苏州古城区内各行业和功能区抽取典型样本进行研究,对各指标赋值。采用拉格朗日插值法和判断矩阵法进行多级多指标体系的模糊综合评价,得到各行业和功能区的火灾安全等级。然后采用指数法对古城区内的七个街道地块按各行业和功能区占有的比例及其消防能力计算其综合防火安全度。最后得到定量评估古城区防火安全属于中等程度的结论。

This paper presents a target system of urban fire safety in which there are4targets at the first class level,16targets at the second class level and43targets at the third class level.Within the old downtown area of Suzhou,various trades and function districts are sampled on a representative study basis and all the targets thereof are evaluated.Using Lagrange interpolation method and the matrix judgment method,a fuzzy comprehensive assessment has been made of the multi-level and multi-target fire prevention system.Then the classification of the prevention of each trade and each function district of the old town has been obtained.According to the propor-tions of trades and function districts in7residential areas of the old town and their comprehensive fire prevention capacity and levels,the total fire prevention grades of the residential areas have been worked out.The quantitative assessment indicates that the overall fire prevention grade in the downtown area is the middle level.