论通货紧缩对我国经济的影响

Effects of Deflation on China′s Economy

通货紧缩对经济的破坏力度与通货膨胀相比是一样的 ,甚至有过之而无不及。首先 ,通货紧缩会加速经济的衰退。由于物价的持续下跌 ,必然导致人们对经济前景的悲观预期 ,持币观望 ,使消费或投资进一步萎缩。其次 ,物价的下跌还会提高实际利率 ,加重债务人的负担 ,即名义利率下降 ,资金成本仍然比较高 ,致使企业不敢贷款投资 ,或难以偿债。银行则出现大量坏帐 ,并难以找到盈利的项目提供贷款 ,经营效益不断滑坡 。

Compared with inflation ,the destructive power of defla tion on economy is nobetter or even worse Firstly ,deflation of currency can speed up the decline o f economy continuous falling prices inevitably lead to people′ s pessimistic expectancy about economic prospects Therefore ,people hold money in hand and look on ,which results in the shrivel of consumption or investment Secondly ,f al ling prices can increase the actual interest rate and make debtors′ burden much heavier ,Even if nominal interest rate decreases ,the capital cost is maintaine d rather high and the enterprise dare not loan money to invest or pay off debts Banks can′ t provide loans for profitable projects with lots of bad debts emerg ing ,wh ich leads to the decreased profits ,enlarged adverse balance of payments and the flight capital