上海市区1973～1999年前列腺癌发病趋势分析

Incidence Trends of Prostate Cancer in Urban Shanghai (1973～1999)

目的 对上海市区居民 1973～ 1999年前列腺癌发病率进行统计、分析 ,了解其变化趋势并分析变化原因。方法 根据上海市肿瘤登记处收集的 1973～ 1999年上海市区前列腺癌的病例资料 ,并依据有关年份人口普查资料中的性别、年龄构成用内插法和外推法估算各年份和性别的年龄组平均人口数 ,计算年龄别发病率。标化率的计算采用世界标准人口。发病率每年变化百分比采用加权对数直线回归法计算。结果 1973～ 1999年间 ,上海市肿瘤登记处共登记前列腺癌病例 2 ,884例。 2 7年来 ,前列腺癌的发病率呈明显的上升趋势 ,标化发病率从 1973～ 1975年的 1 8/ 10万上升至 1997～ 1999年的 5 5 / 10万 ,增加了 2 0 5 6% ,年平均变化率为 6 1%。病例的年龄构成中 ,高年龄组比重明显上升。结论 上述的前列腺癌发病率变化趋势 ,提示除了肿瘤诊断和报告情况的改善外 ,居民生活方式和其它环境暴露因素的改变起着重要作用。

Objective Incidence rates of prostate cancer during 1973～1999 in urban Shanghai were analyzed to discover the trend of changes and its possible explanation.Methods Data on the incidence of prostate cancer were obtained from the population-based cancer registry in Shanghai. Population estimates were based on periodic censuses,with age-and sex-specific annual estimates derived by linear inter-and extrapolation for the remaining years. The age-adjusted rates were calculated by way of the World standard population. Annual percent changes in incidence were estimated by means of a weighted linear regression of the logarithm of the respective rates on calendar year.Results During 1973～1999,2,884 cases of prostate cancer were registered at the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The age-adjusted incidence rate has increased 205.6% from 1.8/100,000 in 1973-1975 to 5.5/100,000 in 1997-1999. The annual percent change is 6.1%. Age-specific incidence rates changed more greatly at age groups 75-79 and 80-84.Conclusion Some of these trends may reflect variations in improvement of diagnosis and cancer registration,although changes in lifestyle and other environmental exposures are likely to play important roles.