塑造还是反映民意?——民意测验与美国的对外政策

Public Opinion Polling and U.S. Foreign Policy

本文考察了美国民意测验的历史 ,并以美国对外政策中最受争议的对外军事行动为切入点 ,探讨了民意测验在美国外交决策中的作用。作为一种把抽象的民意具体化为一系列数字的手段 ,民意测验不是单纯地反映民意 ,在某种程度上也塑造着民意。外交政策的制定者不会盲目地遵从民意 ,他们会采取一系列措施来调整民意 ,为其政策服务 ,而民意测验有时只不过是这个过程的一种工具而已。

By concentrating on American military operations abroad, this study explores the history of public opinion polling in the U.S. and the role it plays in American foreign policy decision-making. It is a commonly held belief that the foreign policy issue to which the American public is most sensitive is the use of military forces abroad. Public opinion polling has become an indispensable part of American political discourse. In the process of turning individual opinions to a series of numbers and charts, public opinion polling not only reflects public opinions but also, to some extent, molds them. American foreign policy-makers will not follow public opinions passively. On the contrary, they attempt to influence public perceptions to serve their policy objectives. Public opinion polling is sometimes a tool in this process.