PERT计算机仿真的理论与实践

THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF COMPUTER SIMULATION FOR PERT

PERT的传统算法是三点估计法。这个方法简单,但削弱了工序作业时间的概率特性,使计算结果的误差偏大,计划实施的可靠度较低。本文论述了工序作业时间的概率分布;提出了PERT计算机仿真的一般原理与方法。并在宝钢热轧厂水处理系统土建工程施工中应用。在实施过程中,根据工序关键度对工序实行分级管理和跟踪控制。计划得到了实现,取得了明显的经济效果。

The traditional calculation method of PERT is the three-point estimationmethod. This method is simple, but it impairs the probability characteristics ofactivity duration, so that error of the calculating result becomes larger, andthe reliability of planning will be lower. The probability distribution of activ-ity durations is discussed in this paper. The general principles and method ofcomputer simulation for PERT are given also. Applicated of the computersimulation to the water treatment system of Baoshan Rolling Steel Company.During the implemetation out of the project, activities were classified intomanagement and control according to their significance. The project had beenrealized and achieved a distinct economic effect