主客观天气预报质量对比分析

A COMPARING ANALYSIS ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST

对 2 0 0 1年 4～ 1 2月 5种信息源广州市区的天气预报进行预报质量检验 ,预报时效为2 4、48、72h ;检验要素针对降水、温度。对降水预报进行一般晴雨、暴雨业务评分和Ts评分 ;对温度预报进行方差、分级等统计检验。对预报员和模式预报产品的预报质量进行对比分析 ,结果表明对于一般性晴雨天气预报 ,热带所中尺度模式的预报质量普遍较好 ,并且具有良好的稳定性 ,预报员的 2 4h预报质量与模式的预报质量相当 ,48～ 72h预报总体而言 ,模式预报明显优于其它预报方法 ;各种方法对暴雨的预报能力偏低 ;Ts评分表明模式对有、无降水的预报能力较强 ;对于温度预报 ,总体上 ,预报员的预报准确率最好 ,热带所中尺度模式的温度预报存在系统误差 ,预报普遍比实况偏低 ;对于降水和温度 ,各种预报方法质量均随预报时效的增长而下降 ,且最高温度的预报误差总比最低温度的预报误差大。

The qualities of weather forecast in Guangzhou city of five information from April to December in 2001 are tested, the time span of forecast is 24、48、72 hours ahead, and the tested elements are precipitation and temperature. For precipitation, the common weather of fine or rain, and weather of heavy rain have been tested respectively by using the methods of operational appraisal and Ts valuation. As for temperature forecast, the variance and graded statistics have been computed. The analyses show that for the common weather forecast of fine or rain, the forecast qualities of HRMM are generally better than others, and having good stability. For 24 hours ahead, the forecast qualities of forecasters are equal to the model, but for 24～48 hours ahead, generally the model prediction is superior to other methods. All methods have poor abilities to predict the heavy rain. The Ts valuation reveals that the model has better ability to predict rain or not. For temperature forecast, generally the forecast qualities of forecaster are the best, but the HRMM has systematical error, the model forecasts are commonly lower than those of realities. For the forecasts of precipitation and temperature, the qualities of all methods are tending down with the growth of prediction time, and the errors of forecast quality of maximum temperature are always larger than that of minimum temperature.