模糊FTA在输油管道泄漏风险分析中的应用

Risk Analysis of Oil Pipeline Leakage Based on Fuzzy FTA

在缺乏足够可靠性数据的条件下,将模糊数学与故障树分析(FTA)方法相结合,通过分析输油管道运行过程中可能导致泄漏事故的危险因素,建立管道泄漏故障树模型,以三角模糊数表征基本事件概率,并计算泄漏事故发生的模糊概率值以及对基本事件概率重要度进行分析.将其应用于四川某输油管线泄漏分析,结果表明管道泄漏三角模糊概率表征为(0.0053,0.0125,0.0275),系统可靠度为98.75%,其中冲沟开挖整治、材料质量不合格、违章施工等6个基本事件对顶事件发生概率影响较大,可为输油管道系统的风险防范提供依据.

In the absence of sufficient reliability data,the fuzzy mathematics can be combined with the FTA(Fault Tree Analysis)analysis method to establish a pipeline leakage fault tree model by analyzing the risk factors that may cause leakage accidents during the operation of the pipeline.Using triangular fuzzy number to characterize the probability of the basic event,the fuzzy probability value of the leakage accidents was calculated and the importance probability of the basic event was analyzed.After applying it to the leakage analysis of one oil pipeline in Sichuan,the results show that the triangular fuzzy probability of pipeline leakage is characterized by(0.0053,0.0125,0.0275),the system reliability is 98.75%.And six basic events,such as gully excavation and remediation,unqualified material quality and illegal construction,have a greater impact on the probability of occurrence of the top event,which provides a basis for risk prevention of the oil pipeline system.