缅甸政局发展态势(2014—2015)与中国对缅外交

Political Development in Myanmar( 2014- 2015)and China's Diplomacy to Myanmar

缅甸2014年延续了2011年以来政治生态的变化,各大政治力量主要围绕缅甸改革发展的重大问题尤其是修宪和全国停火展开较量。尽管国内有局部动荡,克钦独立军等一些民地武与政府军的小规模武装冲突仍在持续,由于各大政治力量仍坚持通过对话解决问题,就全国范围而言,缅甸社会政治基本上保持稳定,2008年宪法所确定的由军队和执政党主导的政治和权力结构并没有发生根本变化。另一方面,缅甸政治发展中的重大问题尤其是修宪和全国停火协议都没有取得实质性的进展,反对党和民地武坚持要求推进改革,改变现状,处于社会政治转型中的缅甸仍然处于"转"而未"成型","稳而不定"的阶段。随着可能导致缅甸政治格局重大变化的2015年大选的临近,缅甸政治发展变化中的"不定"因素增强,各派博弈在大选前趋于激烈,外部因素尤其是美国因素对缅甸政治发展以及中缅关系的影响也值得关注。鉴于中缅关系的现状和2015年大选年缅甸形势的复杂性,中国对缅政策宜采取主动、有为、稳步、务实推进的策略,在继续发挥中国对缅关系现有的有利条件下更为主动、有所作为地开展对缅外交,同时要更加注重对缅工作的全面性,稳步推进中缅合作。

The political development of Myanmar in 2014 continues the momentum since 2011,the amendment of the constitution and ceasefire are the two major issues that relevant players are concerned with. The major political parties prefer to solve the problems by peaceful dialogue; the national political situation remains stable and the political structure dominated by the military and ruling party which is outlined by the constitution of 2008hasn't changed although there are minor conflicts between Kachin( KIA) / ethnic military and government military in some areas. The major issues in Myanmar politics including the amendment of the constitution and ceasefire haven't achieved any significant progress in2014 and the opposition party and ethnical military still request for reform,so Myanmar is still in the transformation stage. With the advent of 2015 election,political uncertainties will increase and struggle will intensify too; external powers' role,especially US' role,need to be paid close attention to. Given the status quo of Sino- Myanmar relations and complication of 2015 election,China's policy to Myanmar should be proactive,stable and pragmatic; China should engage more actively in the diplomacy with Myanmar under the current favorable condition while maintaining comprehensive and stable cooperation with Myanmar.