中国与北印度洋地区的海洋安全合作

Maritime Security Cooperation between China and the North Indian Ocean

在中印共同崛起的大背景下,北印度洋地区是中印海上安全利益最为重叠的区域。中印间长期存在的"信任赤字"和北印度洋地区仍然主要依靠美国来保证安全的权力结构现实,是中国在该区域融入程度非常低的主要影响因素。要加强中国在北印度洋地区的存在,美国是常态的负面"贡献性"因素,印度是中国需要争取合作的主要对象,主要切入点是要争取在地区海洋机制上更大的融入。本文通过应用SWOT分析模型,对北印度洋地区现存海洋合作机制所面临的问题、未来海洋安全合作所面临的主要挑战和机遇,以及中国所拥用的优势和劣势进行了较为细致的分析。本文认为:即使在北印度洋地区现有权力结构和印度对华安全认知不发生根本性变化的情况下,中印及其他重要利益攸关方在机制层面开展合作仍是可能的;中国越多地融入北印度洋地区现有合作机制,就越不可能以"颠覆性"方式改变该区域现有安全秩序。从长远看,中国更大程度地融入该地区合作机制将有助于一个更加高效、更可持续、更加均衡的地区安全架构的形成。中国更多融入北印度洋地区安全合作机制,需要以一种更加灵巧、更加机动、更加创造性的方式进行。这需要重要利益攸关方的共同努力及良好、务实互动,需要从另一个视角对所谓现存的"安全困境"进行重新阐述。

In the context of emerging India and rising China,the North Indian Ocean is the area where India and China's maritime security interests highly overlapped. The long-existed trust deficit between India and China and the current power structure in the North Indian Ocean in which U. S is still the predominate power to provide public security goods are regarded as the two main factors which made China's engagement in this region kept in a very low profile. But this paper argues that U. S is just the contributing factor for China's low presence in the North Indian Ocean and India is the real partner that China should make efforts to expand cooperation to enhance its engagement. And the main approach should be to enhance its engagement on maritime security mechanism through a more practical and issue-oriented way. By applying SWOT( Strengths Weakness Opportunity Threats) analysis model,this paper firstly examined the problems of current mechanism,and then explored the potential opportunities,risks and challenges for China to strengthen its engagement in maritime cooperation in the north Indian Ocean. It also covered the strengths and weakness that China possessed for conducting maritime cooperation in the region. Finally this paper made the conclusion that( 1) Even under current power structure in the North Indian Ocean and the mindset of India to security threat did not experience tremendous changes,it is still possible for India,China and other important stake-holders to conduct maritime cooperation in the region at mechanism level;( 2) The more China is engaged in the maritime security cooperation mechanism in the north Indian Ocean,the less possible that China would change current power structure in a reformist way in the near future. For the long-run,to engage China more is also helpful to build a more efficient,sustainable and harmonious security architecture in the north Indian Ocean. It requires a more flexible,creative and comprehensive approach to enhance China's engagements in the maritime security cooperation mechanism for those stake-holders. It also requires common efforts of the related important stake-holders and needs sound,pragmatic interaction between each other. More importantly,it requires all the stake-holders to reframe the so-called security dilemma from the perspective that it is not for geopolitical competition,not for hedging-access,but for the prospect of an efficient,sustainable and harmonious security architecture.