亚洲的地缘政治竞争与不可避免的战争:世界体系视角下的历史教训

Geostrategic Competition in Asia and the Inevitably of War:Historical Lessons from World-Systems

本文的目的是重新评估中美战争不可避免这一问题。战争不可避免是太平洋两岸一些决策者的观点,这很容易从现实主义国际关系理论的假设推导出来。本文基于世界体系理论重新评估了世界经济的结构与过程以及权力转移问题。世界体系理论认为公海航行自由、基础设施和制度都是地缘政治问题。这也是当代中国外交面临的三个问题。它们也是历史上促成全球和平或冲突的问题,具体取决于不断变化的地缘政治背景和特定国家的地缘政治原则。从世界体系角度吸取的历史教训使我们意识到两个重要互动决定着全球的战争与和平问题,即世界政治基本原则之间的互动、领土优先战略和经济优先战略之间的互动。只要从世界体系的视角下吸取权力转移的历史教训,战争是可以避免的。

The purpose of this paper was to re-evaluate the question of whether war between the US and China is inevitable.The inevitability of war is the view of some policy makers on both sides of the Pacific Ocean and is readily derived from the assumptions of realist IR theory.The re-evaluation was undertaken by introducing the structure and dynamics of the capitalist world-economy as defined by world-systems analysis.Freedom of the seas,infrastructure,and institutions are all geopolitical issues that face contemporary Chinese policy makers.They are also issues that have historically enabled global peace or conflict,depending on the changing geopolitical context and the decisions within the geopolitical codes of particular countries.In sum,the historical lessons gained from a world-systems perspective make us aware of two important interactions that drive geopolitics.One interaction is between the fundamentals of world politics that are necessary for the operation of the capitalist world-economy and particular decisions or circumstances.the second important interaction is between the two logics of T-M-T’and M-T-M’that are also clearly manifested in large-scale infrastructure projects.The war can be avoided as long as the history lessons from world system analysisare learnt