2018年马尔代夫总统大选前瞻及中国的应对方案

Prospects of Maldives Presidential Election in 2018 and China's Possible Response

亚明执政后,马政党力量格局发生重要变化,并由此带来国内政党政治与国际政治相互作用并产生重要外溢影响。执政党联盟已确定进步党领导人、现任总统亚明为候选人,而反对党联盟在是否共同推选一位总统候选人问题上矛盾重重,联盟处在解体的边缘。反对党联盟阵营能否就共同候选人问题达成共识是2018年总统大选的最大变数,并决定了总统大选的走向。若反对党联盟能在共同候选人问题上化解分歧,则民主党议会领袖伊布将极有可能成为反对党联盟的候选人,将与亚明展开两两对决,且极有可能战胜亚明成为下任总统;若反对党联盟未能解决共同候选人问题,则最后的大选仍将在进步党、民主党与共和党三党之间展开,亚明将拥有极大的优势获得连任。面对两种可能性,中国需做好不同的预案,以维护中马双边关系、印度洋地区形势与大国关系的稳定与发展。

Since President Yameen has taken power in 2013,the power structure of the parties have been changed significantly which resulted in interaction between domestic politics and international politics and brought spillover effects.Yameen is presidential candidate of the ruling party alliance.While the opposition parties alliance has not met a deal on who would be a presidential candidate,the alliance is on the verge of collapse.Whether the opposition party alliance could reach a consensus on presidential candidate issue will decide the result of presidential election.One possibility is the opposition parties alliance could reach an agreement on presidential candidate,Ibrahim‘Ibu’Mohamed Solih who is the parliamentary group leader of Maldivian Democratic Party would have great odds of defeating President Yameen.Another possibility is the opposition parties alliance could not reach an agreement on the issue and the alliance is broken,there would be a competition among Progressive Party of Maldives,Maldivian Democratic Party and Jumhooree Party,and President Yameen would win a second term.China would take different plans to respond the situations in order to improve the peace and development of Sino-Maldivan relation,Indian Ocean area.