“印太”:概念阐释、实施的局限性与战略走势

“Indo-Pacific”: Explanation of the Concepts,Strategic Localization and Its Trends

无论"印太"是停留在概念还是构想层面,抑或已经是战略,美国以"印太"概念为抓手试图构建美印日澳四国联盟所引发的中美印在印太地区的战略博弈必将持续。美国虽然不是"印太"战略的唯一推手,但毫无疑问是决定"印太"战略未来走势的首要国家。当前美国主导的"印太"战略存在以下局限性:第一,大国战略博弈之下双边与多边关系走向存在不确定性,这是"印太"战略的摩擦力;第二,"印太"战略下美印日澳追求各自利益导致相互依赖具有松散性,这是"印太"战略实施的制约力;第三,美印日澳四国战略互动与合作存在"集体行动困境",这是"印太"战略的阻力;第四,印度对"印太"战略的考量存在可变性与可塑性,这是"印太"战略中的最大变量。因此,中国既需要在中美博弈中保持战略定力,也需要探索未来中印相处之道。

No matter"Indo-Pacific"is merely a conception or an existing strategy,the fact that the US regards China as a"strategic competitor"will cause a constant strategic game between US and China in the Indo-Pacific region.Although the US is not the only one pusher of the"Indo-Pacific"strategy,it undoubtedly is the dominate country to determine the future direction of the"Indo-Pacific"strategy.Presently,As a matter of fact,the"Indo-Pacific"strategy advocated by the US,Japan,India and Australia has the following restrictions.First,bilateral and multilateral relations under the strategic game of great powers develop in a uncertain direction,which reflects the friction of the"Indo-Pacific"strategy;second,the pursuit of respective interests of the US,Japan,India and Australia under the"Indo-Pacific"strategy leads to a loose interdependence,which reflects the constraint to the implementation of the"Indo-Pacific"strategy;third,the strategic interaction and cooperation among the US,Japan,India and Australia fall into a collective action dilemma,which reflects the resistance of the"Indo-Pacific"strategy;fourth,India's consideration of the"Indo-Pacific"strategy may be variable and uncertain.