成都市手足口病不同发病水平的气象因素特征分析

Analysis of Meteorological Factors of Different Levels of HFMD Incidence in Chengdu City

目的了解成都市手足口病与气象因素的关系和不同发病水平的气象特征。方法从气象部门收集成都市2011-2013年的气象资料,分析气象因素与手足口病周发病数相关性,以2011-2013年手足口病周发病数P75和P25将手足口病周发病数划分为3个等级,比较在不同发病水平下的气象因素特征差异,并做手足口病发病水平影响因素的logistic回归。结果手足口病发病数与平均气温、平均降水量呈显著性正相关,相关系数分别为0.33、0.21(P<0.05);与平均气压呈显著性负相关,相关系数为-0.26(P<0.01),高发病数的周次较其他发病水平周次具有气压较低、气温较高、降水量适中的特点,以手足口病发病水平为因变量,气象因素为自变量建立logistic回归模型,结果显示气象因素中仅有气温在模型中具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论成都市气象因素与手足口病发病有一定的相关性,气象因素中气温对手足口病发病影响更明显。

Objective To investigate the association between the meteorological characteristics and the incidence of hand- foot- mouth disease( HFMD) in Chengdu. Methods Data of HFMD and meteorological of Chengdu from 2011 to 2013 were collected,the incidence of HFMD was divided into three levels according to the P75 and P25 of HFMD cases and then compared the difference of meteorological factors of different levels. The logistic regression model was established with the meteorological factors as independent variables and the level of HFMD as dependent variable. Results HFMD showed a significant positive correlation with temperature,precipitation( P < 0. 05) and had a significant negative correlation with the mean pressure( P < 0. 01). The weeks with high HFMD incidence had a characteristic of low pressure,high temperature,moderate rainfall,and the multivariate logistic regression model showed that only temperature have significant regression coefficients in the model( P < 0. 05). Conclusion The meteorological factors are associated with the incidence of HFMD in Chengdu,and the influence of temperature is more pronounced.