半岛局势转圜下的安倍对朝政策与日朝对话前景

Abe's Policy towards North Korea and the Prospect of Japan-DPRK Dialogue under the Turning of the Peninsula Situation

冷战后日朝两国的政府间对话主要围绕着邦交正常化、历史清算、朝鲜核导问题、"绑架问题"等政策议题展开。安倍晋三2012年执政以来,对朝政策日趋强硬,甚至不惜采取拒绝对话、以压促变的政策立场。但在2018年半岛局势急速转圜的情况下,安倍政府主张"压力先行"的对朝政策陷入困境,导致日本几乎完全被排除在有关各方为实现半岛无核化的对话与合作进程之外。安倍政府不得不转而谋求实现日朝对话并采取了国际协调等政策调整举措。安倍政府实现日朝首脑会晤的前景预期是存在的,但究竟能在多大程度上通过对话来改善日朝关系,则受到多重因素制约,并将对半岛地缘政治产生复杂影响。

After the Cold War,the intergovernmental dialogues between Japan and the DPRK,which mainly focused on normalization of diplomatic relations,settlement of historical disputes,North Korea nuclear and missile issues,and the‘abduction issue’,has been off and on for years.Since Shinzo Abe regime took office in December 2012,Japan’s diplomatic policy toward the DPRK has been increasingly tough,which rejected dialogues and tried to force North Korea to make changes through continuous pressure.However,great changes has rapidly taken place in Korean Peninsula in the first half of 2018.Under this circumstance,Abe regime’s‘pressure priority’policy toward the DPRK has placed Japan in a dilemma that Japan is almost‘isolated’from the easing of tension on the Korean Peninsula.In response,the Abe regime had to turn to dialogues with the DPRK,and adjusted some of its diplomatic policy.At present,the prospect of Japan-DPRK dialogue is quite promising.However,the extent to which the relationship between Japan and the DPRK can be improved through dialogues depends on multiple factors.And it will have a complex impact on the geopolitics of the Korean Peninsula.