一种应用于空间碎片演化模型的碰撞概率算法

A Collision Probability Estimation Algorithm Used in Space Debris Evolutionary Model

针对碰撞概率算法Cube模型参数影响空间碎片演化模型的仿真结果问题进行了深入分析与研究,并将原Cube算法进行改进,由此提出I-Cube模型。经过多次蒙特卡洛仿真结果验证,I-Cube模型对演化过程中空间碎片碰撞概率的计算更为准确合理,空间碎片长期演化模型的结果不再依赖于自身碰撞概率算法的相关参数,提高了空间碎片长期演化模型的稳定性与可信度。

An in-depth analysis is performed on the problem that one parameter of the Cube model can affect the final simulation results of a space debris long-term evolution model,which weakens the representativeness of the space debris evolution model.We make some improvements and propose an Improved-Cube(I-Cube)model.By multiple Monte Carlo simulations,it is indicated that the I-Cube model offers a more accurate and more reasonable option for the collision probability estimation in the space debris evolution process.The simulation results of the space debris long-term evolution model are no longer sensitive to the collision probability estimation model parameters,thus improving the reliability of the space debris long-term evolution model.