武器装备体系评估理论与方法的探索与实践

Exploration and Practice to the Theory and Method of Evaluating Weapon System of Systems

针对武器装备体系评估的需要,围绕体系仿真试验床,提出了基于复杂系统的体系理解、面向整个武器装备体系、坚持联合作战背景、重在体系贡献度量、采用复杂科学方法手段、依托积累的模型和实演的数据、建立全新的体系实验框架、达成辅助高层决策目的等8条新理念,讨论了多重循环实验、体系指标挖掘、网状指标体系、能力状态测量、动态体系模型、焦点接入、基线实验评估、方案智能对接、大数据超网分析、结果多维比对、体系贡献度量、洞察辅助决策等12项关键技术。

For the needs of Evaluating Weapon System of Systems(WSoS),we put forward 8 new ideas about the System of Systems Simulation Test Bed(SSTB)as following:understanding System of Systems(SoS)based on complex system theory,facing the whole WSoS,taking joint operations as background,focusing on the measures of contribution degree of SoS,utilizing novel means of complexity science,relying on the accumulated models and live data,building a new simulation experiment framework,and achieving the goal of assisting the seniors making decision.In addition,we discussed 12 key technologies.They are multiple cycles experiment,data mining for the indexes of SoS,reticular index system,the measure of capability and status of SoS,dynamical models of SoS,fast access and simulation of the focused weapons,evaluation based on baseline,intelligent battle plans input,analysis based on big data and network of networks, multidimension comparison for the results,measure of contribution degree of SoS,and insight and assistant making decision.