地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型

Model for fast assessment of earthquake damage and losses considering uncertainty of epicenters obtained from rapid determination of earthquake location

本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型,并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据,得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。

The problems exist in the current earthquake damage and losses assessment practice based on the parameters obtained from rapid determination of earthquake location are discussed in the paper, and then a new model for fast assessment of earthquake damage and losses considering the uncertainty of epicenters obtained by rapid determination. A group of 81 rapid seismic location data and relevant macroscopic epicenter ones since 1990 in main land China are collected and the statistical parameters of probability distribution of the deviation of rapid seismic location from the macroscopic epicenter are obtained.