香港特区政府“理财新哲学”及未来展望

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government's“New Fiscal Philosophy”and Its Outlook

香港特区政府过去10年实行保守型财政政策,财政盈余大量积累,但社会问题依然严重。行政长官林郑月娥在竞选时提出"理财新哲学",认为应大胆增加开支,才能积极有为、加强香港竞争力;香港特区行政会议成员、前金融管理局总裁任志刚对新一届政府有关"把握机遇,投资未来"的愿景感到非常鼓舞,认为政府在财政管理上应更为进取,促进生产力及经济增长;财政司司长陈茂波于2018年2月28日公布新一届政府首份财政预算案,提出"多元经济、投资未来以及关爱共享"三大目标,进一步阐释了"理财新哲学"的理念。本文在回顾香港财政政策历史演变情况的基础上,探讨了长期实行保守型政策的原因,与新加坡、中国澳门等小型开放经济体进行了比较,进而分析"理财新哲学"提出的背景、要点及具体"新"在哪里,并初步估计其影响及前景。

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region(HKSAR) Government has adopted a prudential fiscal policy over the past decade, which has resulted in a large fiscal surplus. However, social problems remain serious. In her election campaign, Mrs. Carrie Lam put forward the"New Fiscal Philosophy", arguing that only through bold increase in fiscal expenditure can Hong Kong become more proactive and competitive. Mr. Joseph Yam, member of the Hong Kong Executive Council(Ex Co) and former Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority(HKMA), was very encouraged by the new administration's vision of"seizing opportunities and investing for the future". He suggested that the Government should be more aggressive in fiscal management to promote economic and productivity growth. The 2018/19 Budget delivered by the Financial Secretary, Mr. Paul Chan Mo-po, on 28 February 2018 points out that the initiative is underpinned by three main objectives: Diversified Economy, Investing for the Future as well as Caring and Sharing, which further explains the idea of "New Fiscal Philosophy". Based on a review of fiscal policy changes in Hong Kong, this paper discusses the reasons for the formerly conservative policy, and compares it to those in small open economies such as Singapore and the Macao SAR. Then this paper delves into the background, key points and the uniqueness of the"New Fiscal Philosophy", thereby analyzing its impact and prospect.