港珠澳大桥开通对澳门区域发展格局的影响分析——基于粤港澳大湾区城市群发展分析

Analysis on the Impact of the Opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge on the Regional Development Pattern of Macao: A Case Study of the Urban Agglomeration of Guangdong-Hong-Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

本文运用经济联系度的引力模型和分形模型测算港珠澳大桥开通对澳门区域发展格局的影响。测算结果发现:(1)到2020年,澳门与珠江东岸城市的经济联系度将达到1024亿元×万人/平方公里,比大桥开通前的经济联系强度增加27倍多。(2)大桥开通后,随着粤港澳大湾区城市群的中心城市辐射带动能力不断提升,澳门将融入以广深港为中心城市的粤港澳大湾区城市群交通互联互通框架中,积极推动珠江东岸和西岸生产要素有序流动。基于此,本文提出以下三点建议:积极推进统一开放、竞争有序的共同市场机制;建立更加有效的澳门与粤港澳大湾区城市群的区域合作机制;推进澳门产业适度多元化发展。

The paper employs the gravity model and the fractal model of the economic linkage degree to estimate the impact of the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge on Macao’s regional devel-opment pattern. The findings are:(1) by 2020, the degree of economic linkage between Macao and the Eastern Pearl River will reach RMB102.4 billion x 10,000 persons/square kilometers, which is 27 times higher than before.(2) As central cities in the urban agglomeration of Guangdong-Hong-Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area continue to drive the development of surrounding cities after the Bridge’s opening,Macao will integrate into the urban agglomeration’s transport interconnectivity framework with Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong as the central cities, and actively promote the orderly flow of production factors across the Pearl River. Based on the above conclusions, the following three suggestions are proposed: actively build a unified, open common market of orderly competition;build a more effective mechanism to drive the regional cooperation between Macao and the rest of the Greater Bay Area;and speed up 'appropriate diversification' of the local economy.