土地利用动态变化定量模拟方法的适用性评价

Applicability Evaluation for Simulation Models of the Land Use Dynamics

随着土地利用变化定量模拟模型的不断增加,模型的适用性也成为土地利用变化研究的重要问题之一.本研究选取林地和草地动态变化的典型区为研究案例,分别应用CLUE模型、元胞自动机模型和DLS模型3类模型模拟了不同典型区土地利用变化过程.然后依据采用人机交互解译方式提取出的土地利用数据,进行叠加分析,基于各类型正确模拟的栅格数除以该类型总栅格数,分别从栅格尺度和县域尺度,以对不同典型区土地利用变化过程模拟结果进行精度验证,从而综合评价不同类型土地利用变化过程模拟模型的适宜性和精度.结果表明,在对单种用地类型进行土地利用模拟,特别是建设用地的模拟时,元胞自动机模型的适宜度更高;对于综合模拟所有用地类型时,尤其是需要模拟林地和草地二级分类变化时,DLS模型和CLUE模型均可,但是DLS模型的精度相对较高;对于需要考虑土地转移的时间长短时,尤其是有林地形成,CLUE模型相对更为适宜.这些研究结论将为不同区域土地利用规划和管理决策者提供重要的信息参考.

As the number of quantitative simulation models of land use dynamics has continually increased,the applicability assessment becomes one of the significant focuses of relevant researches of land use dynamics.With the typical forest and grassland dynamics areas,this study simulated the land use dynamic processby using CA model,CLUE model and DLS model respectively.On the basis of the estimation for the number of correctly simulated grids for each type of land uses divided by the total number of grids of that type,the accuracy of the simulated results of land use dynamicsin different typical areas is verified by overlying the data extracted by man-machine interactive interpretation and the simulated results,and then the applicability of those simulation models is assessed comprehensively.The results show that Cellular Automation is more applicable in simulating single type of land use especially the built-up area.As for the comprehensive simulation of all types of land use especially for the sub-category forest and grassland changes simulation,DLS and CLUE models are both suitable,but the accuracy of DLS model is relatively high.CLUE model is more appropriate when it is necessary to consider long-time influences of land use change such as woodland conversion.The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the land use plannersand administrators in different areas.