基于系统动力学的黑龙江省农业生态系统能值分析

Emergy Analysis of Agricultural Ecosystem in Heilongjiang Province Based on System Dynamics

农业生态系统为人类提供生存和发展的基本产品,构建可以独立核算的农业生态系统模型对科学评价区域农业状况有重大意义.该研究借助系统动力学方法,构建基于能值投入、产出及综合评价性指标的农业生态系统SD模型,对黑龙江省农业生态系统发展状况及时间变化特征进行了分析与预测,同时对系统进行灵敏性测试.结果表明:(1)黑龙江省农业生态系统能值投入及产出均呈持续增加趋势,但系统可持续性能逐年降低;(2)黑龙江省过度依赖种植业及畜牧业,导致区域生产力稳定性的波动降低;(3)区域农业生态系统对自然因素的响应较弱,对人为因素的响应较为明显,可知人为因素对黑龙江省农业生态系统影响较大.该研究为黑龙江省今后农业投入产出结构的调整提供了依据.

Agro-ecosystems provide human beings with basic products for their survival and development,it is of great significance to construct an independent agro-ecosystem model to evaluate the agricultural situation in the evaluation area.This research built an agro-ecosystem model which based on emergy input-output and comprehensive appraisal index by system dynamics method,and carrried out a sensitivity test of the system to analyze and predicte agro-ecosystem development and time-varying characteristics in Heilongjiang province.The results showed:(1)The emergy input and output of agro-ecosystem in Heilongjiang province tends to increase continuously,but the sustainability of the system decreases year by year;(2)Over-dependence on crop and livestock husbandry in Heilongjiang province result in a fluctuation reduce of regional productivity;(3)The response of the regional agro-ecosystem to natural factors is weak,and the response to human factors is obviously,it shows that human factors have a great influence on agro-ecosystem of Heilongjiang province.This study provides a basis for the future adjustment of agricultural input-output structure in Heilongjiang province.