贸易模式对经济增长的动态影响研究——基于人民币初步国际化前后的比较

The Dynamic Impact of Trade Patterns on Economic Growth:Based on Comparison before and after Preliminary RMB Internationalization

人民币初步国际化导致了我国社会形势的深刻变化,在此背景下研究不同贸易方式对经济增长的影响具有十分重要的战略意义。本文通过SVAR模型进行实证研究,得出以下结论:人民币初步国际化前,短期内加工贸易出口、一般贸易进口促进了经济增长;人民币初步国际化后,伴随着贸易对经济增长的间接作用加大,各种贸易模式相互促进的作用更加明显,出口在短期内促进了经济增长,长期中一般贸易进口和加工贸易进口促进了经济增长。最后,针对实证结果,提出了相应的政策建议,旨在为我国的贸易方式的改进提供科学有效的政策意见,促进经济健康有序地发展。

Preliminary RMB internationalization cause profound changes in the social situation,therefore,the effect of different trade patterns on economic growth around this time,is helpful for the formulation of future trade development strategy.Through SVAR model,achieve the following conclusions:Before initial RMB internationalization,processing trade exports in the short term,general trade promotes economic growth.After the initial RMB internationalization,accompanied by greater indirect impact of trade on economic growth and various trade patterns can impact each other,exports can promote economic growth in the short term,exports of general trade and imports of processing trade can promote economic growth in the long-term.Finally,propose policy recommendations according to the empirical results,desire to provide a scientific and effective policy advice to improve trade,and promote development of the economy more healthy.