企业业绩与现金股利政策的探讨

Study on the relationship between the dividend and the earning

股利变化与盈利变化之间的关系一直是财务学的热门话题。研究相关的文献可以发现,对企业业绩与股利政策相互关系的研究比较少见。该文利用中国上市公司1999年至2002年4年的财务数据,通过多元线性回归分析来研究这一关系。研究结果表明现金股利的增加或减少受当期利润的增加或减少的影响较大,而不支持股利信号理论,即股利的变化并不意味着未来盈利的变化。在此基础上,该文提出了我国上市公司股利政策制定的一点建议。

The relationship between the change of dividend and the earning is still a hot topic in finance. There is little study on the relationship. This paper studies the topic with the data of listed companies in china from 1999 to 2002, by the linear regression. The conclusion shows that cash dividend was influenced by the future earning evidently, and can't testify the signal theory. Then, this paper bring forward some suggest on the establishment of the dividend policy.