城镇化扩大消费需求了吗?——来自中国省际面板数据的实证分析

Does Urbanization Expand Consumption Demand?——A Empirical Analysis Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

城镇化建设及其所带来的消费需求的扩大是构建中国经济增长长效机制的主要动力之一。运用全国省际面板数据,对人口城镇化和土地城镇化所带来的消费总量效应和结构效应进行实证分析,得出如下结论:第一,人口城镇化带来了消费需求总量的扩大,但土地城镇化所带来的总量效应不明显;第二,统计制度和户籍管制等因素的限制使得人口城镇化与居民消费率的关系有悖于常理,人口城镇化抑制了居民消费率的提高;第三,城镇化进程中开放程度和工业化程度的提高都能有效地促进居民消费需求的扩大,产业支撑对消费结构的调整至关重要;第四,人口城镇化引致了政府消费支出的增加,土地城镇化则为政府消费支出提供了有效的资金支持。

Urbanization and its influence to expand consumption demand are the main impetus to construct the long- term mechanism of China's economic growth. By using the nationwide provincial panel data,an empirical study is made on the total effect and structure effect of consumption which comes from population and land urbanization. Some conclusions are drawn: firstly,population urbanization brings about the expansion of total consumption demand,while the total effect of land urbanization is not obvious; secondly,the restrictions of statistical system and household registration control make the relationship between population urbanization and resident consumption rate contrary to the common practice,that is,population urbanization restrains the increase of resident consumption rate; thirdly,the opening degree and industrialization degree in the urbanization process both effectively expand resident consumption demand,so industrial support is very important to the adjustment of consumption structure; fourthly,population urbanization leads to the increase of government expenditure,while land urbanization provides effective capital support to government expenditure.