增长、结构升级与城市经济对县域经济的辐射带动——基于长三角城市群外围区的实证研究

Growth,Structure Upgrading and the Driving Effects of Urban Economy to County Economy——An Empirical Study Based on the Peripheral Region of the Yangtze River Delta City Group

城市经济对县域经济是否具有辐射带动作用,如何增强城市经济的辐射带动作用?基于增长极理论使用面板VAR模型实证检验了城市经济对县域经济的辐射带动作用。研究发现,城市经济对县域经济具有显著的辐射带动作用,城市经济增长对县域经济增长的带动作用随时间推移不断下降,城市经济结构升级对县域经济增长具有持续的促进作用。城市经济结构升级有利于城市经济增长,但城市经济增长却没有带来城市结构升级,需要通过政策干预促进城市经济结构升级,以更好地增强城市经济对县域经济的辐射带动作用。

Does urban economy has driving effects to county economy,and how to enhance the driving effects of urban economy? Based on the growth pole theory,the paper empirically examines the driving effects of urban economy on county economy by using VAR model. Research shows that urban economy has significant driving effects on county economy. The driving effect of urban economic growth to county economic growth is declining over time,and urban economic structure upgrading has sustainable driving effects to county economic growth. The structure upgrading of urban economy is beneficial to urban economic growth,which in turn cannot bring urban structure upgrading. Therefore,government intervention should be taken to promote the urban economic structure upgrading,so as to enhance the driving effects of urban economy to county economy.