老龄化对人口红利的影响研究——基于供给侧视角

Study on the Impact of Population Ageing on Demographic Dividend——Based on the Supply-side Perspective

如何激活二次人口红利,是当前中国经济应对老龄化面临的重要问题。文章从微观层面的人口时间配置和人口收入配置为出发点,从企业生产供给视角构建一个以人口为中心的经济运行体系。理论分析得出,人口老龄化分别基于消费结构、劳动力占比和储蓄倾向三类效应路径影响人口红利。基于中国2000~2014年分省面板数据的实证研究发现:(1)人口老龄化抑制经济增长,对人口红利产生负向影响;(2)人口老龄化对人口红利影响依赖于平均受教育年限、大专以上学历占比、人均资本存量、储蓄投资转化率、城市化率、二三产业占比和人均公共服务支出。据此,文章从激励教育发展、资本积累、城镇化战略、产业转型和政府公共服务有效供给五个方面,提出了降低人口老龄化对人口红利抑制的政策建议。

How to activate the second demographic dividend is an important issue facing China's economy under the impact of population ageing. This paper takes the micro-level analysis of population time allocation and income allocation as the starting point,and a population-centered economic system is constructed from the perspective of enterprise production supply. Theoretical analysis shows that population ageing has impacts on demographic dividend from three types of effect paths including consumption structure,the proportion of labor force and saving tendency.The empirical study based on provincial panel data in China from 2000 to 2014 shows that:( 1)Population ageing restrains economic growth and has negative impact on the demographic dividend;( 2) The impact of population ageing on demographic dividend depends on the average years of education,ratio of college degree or above,per capita capital stock,savings investment conversion rate,urbanization rate,two or three industries share and per-capita spending on public services. The results of this paper show that the restriction effect of population ageing on demographic dividend can be reduced by stimulating educational development,capital accumulation,urbanization strategy,industrial transformation and effective supply of government public service.