省以下财政分权对公共服务供给的门限效应

Research on the Threshold Effect of Sub-provincial Fiscal Decentralization on Public Service Supply

相对于中央与地方,省以下财政分权对地区公共服务的影响更为直接,但是这种影响是非线性的。以省域内地市级以上政府财政自主度变异系数作为区域发展差异的代理变量,分析2004—2016年27个省份在不同发展差异程度下省以下财政分权对公共服务供给的门限效应。研究发现,区域发展差异水平在不同的门限值区间时,省以下财政收入分权对当地公共服务供给表现出完全不同的影响。而当省域内发展不平衡程度超过第三门限值以上时,只有财政支出指标会对公共服务供给产生显著影响。根据研究结论提出相应政策建议。

Compared with the central and local governments, sub-provincial fiscal decentralization has a more direct impact on regional public services, but the impact is nonlinear. By taking the coefficient of variation of municipal fiscal autonomy above county-level cities as the proxy variable of regional development differences, the paper analyzes the threshold effect of sub-provincial fiscal decentralization on the supply of public services in 27 provinces with different development level from 2004 to 2016. The results show that the sub-provincial fiscal decentralization has completely different impacts on the local public service supply when the regional development difference levels are in different threshold ranges. However, when the degree of intra-provincial development imbalance exceeds the third threshold, only fiscal expenditure index will have a significant impact on the supply of public services. Finally, according to the research findings and conclusions, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.