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地方政府性债务流量风险防范研究 被引量:3

Research on Flow Risk Prevention of Local Government Debt
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摘要 利用KMV模型,选取地方政府性债务违约距离作为地方政府性债务流量风险的代理变量,从理论上分析地方政府性债务流量风险和债务流动性杠杆率之间的关系。利用2012—2016年间中国30个省份的年度债务还本付息额和可偿债财政收入等数据,运用面板数据模型对地方政府性债务流动性杠杆率和债务流量风险之间的关系进行实证检验,实证结果表明,债务流动性杠杆率每上升1%,债务违约距离下降0.8~1.0个百分点,且随着债务流动性杠杆率的上升债务违约距离下降逐步趋缓,理论分析的结果得到了实证分析的有效验证。最后,根据研究结论,提出防范地方政府性债务流量风险的政策建议。 Based on the KMV model, the paper selects the debt default distance of local government as the proxy variable of the flow risk of local government debt, and theoretically analyzes the relationship between the flow risk of local government debt and the debt liquidity leverage rate. By using the data of annual debt service and solvency revenue in China’s 30 provinces from 2012 to 2016, panel data model is used to empirically test the relationship between the debt liquidity leverage rate of local government and debt flow risk. The empirical results show that for every 1% increase in the debt liquidity leverage ratio, the debt default distance decreases by 0.8-1.0 percentage points, and as the debt liquidity leverage ratio rises, the decrease of debt default distance gradually slows down. The results of theoretical analysis are validated by empirical analysis. Finally, based on the research conclusions, policy recommendations to prevent the flow risks of local government debt are put forward.
作者 刘松 Liu Song(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处 《云南财经大学学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2019年第3期13-23,共11页 Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
关键词 地方政府性债务 流量风险 评估指标 风险防范 Local Government Debt Flow Risk Evaluation Index Risk Prevention
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