公共产品供给对中国人口城镇化影响的实证研究——基于GMM估计的动态面板模型

Empirical Research on the Influence of the Supply of Public Goods on Population Urbanization in China:Dynamic Panel Model Based on GMM Estimation

文章探讨了公共产品供给对城镇化的作用机制,首先通过构建公共产品评价指标体系,运用熵值法测度出公共产品供给的区域异质性特征,然后建立动态面板GMM模型,验证了城镇化存在自我强化和路径依赖。进一步分析表明:公共产品总体上对加速城镇化具有显著的正向影响。中西部地区公共产品对城镇化的正向影响显著,存在明显的公共产品促进城镇化提升效应,但东部地区公共产品的城镇化效应并不显著。由于不同公共产品外溢性的特征差异,公共产品中的医疗卫生、社会保障与就业、公共教育和环境保护对城镇化均有显著的正向影响,但公共设施和公共安全对城镇化的影响并不显著。据此,提出新型城镇化进程中提升公共服务产品水平的对策建议。

This paper inquires into the impact mechanism of the supply of public goods on urbanization.An evaluation index system of public goods is constructed to measure the regional heterogeneity characteristics of public goods supply by using entropy method.Then a dynamic panel GMM model is established to verify the existence of'self-reinforcement'and'path dependence'of urbanization.Further analysis shows that public goods in general have a significant positive impact on the acceleration of urbanization.The positive impact is significant in China’s central and western regions,which means that public goods have strong promotion effect on urbanization.However,the urbanization effect of public goods in the eastern region is not significant.Due to the spillover characteristics of different public goods,health care,social security and employment,public education and environmental protection all have significant positive effects on urbanization.But the impact of public infrastructure and public security on urbanization is not significant.Based on the analysis,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve the level of public goods in the process of new urbanization.