最终需求拉动就业效率下降的原因与对策

Causes and Countermeasures of the Decline of Employment Efficiency Pulled by Final Demand

基于2002年、2007年、2012年和2015年中国投入产出局部闭模型的实证分析结果表明,2002—2015年间,中国各行业增加1单位最终需求,能够直接、间接、引致拉动的就业人数均大幅下降;分时段看,这种下降有逐渐减缓的趋势;分行业看,这种下降存在显著的动态差异。2002—2015年间,中国各行业单位最终需求拉动就业效率下降总体上有三方面的原因:单位产出就业人数变动、产业结构调整和需求结构调整,其中需求结构调整是主要原因。因此,为了缓解当前面临的就业压力,主要应该从需求结构入手,顺应消费结构的变化,满足高质量的消费需求以拉动就业;调整固定资产投资结构,引导资金投向更能够拉动就业的行业;调整出口结构,尝试资本输出带动劳动输出。

An empirical analysis is made on China’s partially closed input-output model in 2002,2007,2012 and 2015,and the results show that for every one unit of increase in final demand of each industry in China from 2002 to 2015,the direct,indirect and induced employment population all declined dramatically.The decline tends to slow down in different time periods,and the decline has significant dynamic differences for different industries.From 2002 to 2015,the pulling down of unit final demand on employment rate in different industries has three causes in general:employment population change of each unit output,the adjustment of industrial structure,and the change of demand structure,among which demand structure is the main reason.Therefore,in order to alleviate present employment pressure,efforts should be done from demand structure,and the changes of consumption structure should be followed to satisfy high quality consumption demand so as to stimulate employment.The investment structure of fixed assets should be adjusted,and capital should be invested into industries that can better stimulate employment.Export structure should also be adjusted,and attempts should be done on promoting labor export by pushing capital export.