房地产税开征预期对住房价格的影响

Research on the Impact of the Levying Expectation of Real Estate Tax on Housing Prices

房地产税能否抑制住房价格上涨一直是社会讨论的热点问题,文章论证了房地产税开征预期对住房价格的影响。通过构建理论模型及实证检验发现:房地产税开征预期与住房价格之间呈显著的负相关关系,房地产税开征预期对城市化率水平越高的城市房价抑制效果越强。进一步研究发现:房地产税开征预期对新房价格上涨的抑制效果强于二手房,且对于90平米以下户型的新房和二手房的价格上涨抑制效果最强。因此,开征房地产税时应该充分考虑住房类型以及不同城市化率水平下住房市场的差异性特征。

The relationship between real estate tax and housing price is a hot topic in society.The paper demonstrates the impact of the levying expectation of real estate tax on housing prices.Through the construction of theoretical models and empirical tests,it is found that there is a significant negative relationship between the levying expectation of real estate tax and the housing price.The levying expectation has stronger effect on urban housing prices in cities with higher urbanization rate.Further research finds that the levying expectation of real estate tax has stronger inhibitory effect on the price increase of new houses than second-hand houses,and the inhibitory effect is the strongest on the price increase of new and old houses below 90 square meters.Therefore,the levying of real estate tax should fully consider the housing type and the differences in the housing markets under different urbanization rates.