陕京天然气管网系统供气可靠度的敏感性

Sensitivity analysis on the gas supply reliability of Shaanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline network system

随着中国天然气需求量迅猛增长,天然气供应的安全性、稳定性及时效性备受关注,确定天然气管网系统可靠度显得尤为重要。以陕京天然气管网系统为研究对象,运用质量工程中常用的六西格玛法则,基于典型工况对最直接影响天然气管网系统可靠度的模拟次数、沿线分输方案、管段单元可靠度、站场单元可靠度、市场需求量5个方面进行敏感性分析。结果表明:由于天然气管网系统存在一定的设计冗余及自身可靠度较高,因此其受自身因素可靠度浮动的影响较小,而受供气需求量浮动的影响最为明显。研究成果为提高天然气管网系统供气保障能力提供了理论支持。

With the rapid growth of natural gas demand in China, the safety, stability and timeliness of natural gas supply is much concerned, so it is of great importance to determine the reliability of natural gas pipeline network systems. In this paper, Shaanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline network system was taken as the study object to conduct sensitivity analysis on the factors which have the most direct effect on the reliability of natural gas pipeline network system. The sensitivity analysis was carried out based on the typical operational mode by using the Six-Sigma rule which is commonly used in quality engineering. And the most direct influential factors of 5 aspects include distribution plan along the route, pipe section and station reliability and market demand. It is indicated that the natural gas pipeline network system has a certain design redundancy and high reliability, so it is less affected by the reliability fluctuation of its own factors but more by the demand fluctuation of gas supply. The research results provide the theoretical support for improving the gas supply guarantee capacity of natural gas pipeline network systems.