基于事故工况下的天然气干线管道供气可靠性评价

Evaluation on the gas supply reliability of gas trunk pipelines based on accident condition

天然气干线管道向着大流量、高压力的趋势不断发展,对供气管道系统的安全、可靠运行提出了更高要求。借鉴巴西国家石油公司与挪威船级社天然气管网的供气可靠性评价方法,建立了基于事故工况下天然气干线管道的供气可靠性评价方法。利用工艺计算软件TGNET模拟事故工况,建立供气极限状态函数值的样本集;通过MATLAB编程进行抽样,确定样本服从的概率分布模型;结合天然气供应等级划分标准,求得天然气干线管道的供气可靠度。通过具体算例,验证了该方法的可行性,可为今后深入研究中国天然气管道系统可靠性提供指导。(图6,表2,参23)

With the continuous development of gas trunk pipelines following the trend of high flow rate and high pressure,the safe and reliable operation of gas supply pipeline systems shall meet more requirements.In this paper,a method for evaluating the gas supply reliability of gas trunk pipeline in the accident condition was established referring to Petrobras’s and DNV’s gas supply reliability evaluation methods of natural gas pipeline network.In this method,the accident condition is simulated by using the technological calculation software TGNET to establish the sample set of the limit state function value of gas supply.Sampling is carried out by means of MATLAB to determine the probability distribution model of the sample.And combined with the classification standard of natural gas supply grade,the gas supply reliability of gas trunk pipeline is obtained.Finally,its feasibility was verified based on specific calculation examples.The research results can provide the guidance for the further study on the reliability of Chinese gas pipeline systems.(6 Figures,2 Tables,23 References)