延庆县森林资源动态变化的灰色预测研究

Study on Grey Prediction of Forest Resources Dynamic Changes of Yanqing County

依据延庆县1989~2009年前后5次的森林资源二类调查资料,应用灰色系统理论分别建立有林地面积预测模型、林木总蓄积量预测模型、森林覆盖率预测模型,对延庆县未来十年内的森林资源动态变化趋势进行预测。结果表明,这些预测模型具有较高的预测精度,且计算量少、方法简单实用。

On the basis of Yanqing county 1989-2009 year and five times of two kinds forest resources survey data, use the grey system theory to establish the prediction model of forest land area, the prediction model of total forest volume, the prediction model of forest coverage, then predict the dynamic changing trends of the Yanqing county forest resources within the next decade. Results show that the prediction model has higher prediction accuracy, less amount of calculation and the method is simple and practical.