宏观经济指标与上证综指长短期走势的预测

Macroeconomic Indicators and a Forecast of Shanghai's Stock Market

上证综合指数和宏观经济指标,如广义货币供应量、国内生产总值、出口与进口的比值,以及外商直接投资之间存在长期的均衡关系,可以通过宏观经济指标来预测上证综合指数的长期走势。误差修正模型的估计结果表明,上证综合指数具备经济"晴雨表"的功能。

The composite index of Shanghai stock market (SSM) has a longterm balanced relationship with macroeconomic indicators, such as the generalized money supply, the GDP, the ratio of export and import and the foreign direct investment, through which a longterm trend of the composite index of SSM can be forecasted. The estimation of error correction model shows that the composite index of SSM can serve as the barometer of economy.