基于机场竞争的区域机场航空客运量预测

Regional Airport Air Passenger Traffic Forecast Based on Airport Competition

机场航空客运量预测是确定机场建设规模、等级及换乘衔接布局的主要依据,也是机场总体规划的前期工作。随着我国城市群的快速发展,区域内各机场之间相互竞争的态势越来越明显。本文综合考虑区域内枢纽机场布局和竞争力,建立机场航空市场占有率预测模型,用于各腹地城市机场航空客运量预测;结合禄口机场的历史数据,进行实例分析。本文提出的预测方法对国内机场航空客运量预测工作具有借鉴意义。

The airport air passenger traffic forecast is the main basis for determining the airport construction scale, grade and transfer layout, and is also the preliminary work of the airport master plan. With the rapid development of China’s urban agglomerations, the competition between airports in a certain region is becoming more and more obvious. This paper comprehensively considers the layout and competitiveness of the hub airport in the region, establishes the airport aviation market share prediction model, and uses it to predict the air passenger traffic volume of each hinterland city airport. Combined with the historical data of Lukou Airport, the case analysis is carried out. The prediction method proposed in this paper has reference significance for the forecasting of domestic airport air passenger traffic.